Recording uncertainty honestly
Put a number on a belief you are genuinely unsure about.
From the record
YES if, before the deadline, a federally regulated prediction-market exchange is legally authorized to offer contracts on professional sporting events under applicable federal law. NO otherwise. Mere proposals, applications, or pending litigation do not qualify.
The reference on this question has a history. Look at where it moved, and ask what would have had to happen for it to move that far.
What to take from it
A probability is not a prediction and it is not a hedge. It is a statement about how surprised you would be, and it is answerable: over enough questions, the things you called seventy per cent should happen about seventy per cent of the time.
Two habits ruin this. The first is drifting toward the middle, because fifty is never very wrong — and never very useful either. The second is anchoring near the ends because a view feels strong today, which is how a record fills with confident misses. Neither is dishonesty; both are comfort.
The honest version is duller. Ask what would have to be true for you to be wrong, decide how likely that is, and write the number that follows even when it embarrasses you. A number that never moves is not conviction, and a number that moves with every headline is not judgment.
Go and read the question this opened with in full. A lesson you have not tested against a real record is a lesson you have only agreed with.